000 AXNT20 KNHC 101742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N21W TO 8N22W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS W AFRICA. A RECENT UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM DAKAR SENEGAL INDICATES THAT THE WAVE PASSED THE STATION SOMETIME DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENTLY CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ REGION WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN 20W-23W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N55W TO 10N57W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE ALIGNS WITH A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A RECENT ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATES BROAD CYCLONE SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 15N17W TO 11N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 7N23W ON THE W SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N35W 6N43W 4N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 32W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM 32N87W TO 28N91W WITH A SECOND LINE 30N91W TO 28N92W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALSO COVER THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-93W. THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF FLOODING ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE GULF COAST AND FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE POSTED THROUGHOUT THAT AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN TEXAS TO THE SE GULF. THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. MAINLY SE-SW SFC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE S ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM SRN MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. DRY AIR ALOFT IS WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE SUPPORTING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN COASTS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA AS WELL AS OFFSHORE OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS WRN COSTA RICA AND SRN PANAMA. DRY AIR ALOFT ALSO COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BESIDES POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE STILL E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THAT SHOULD BE NEAR THE ISLANDS BY 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE FAR WRN ATLC ALONG 77W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 32N71W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVIOUSLY OVER THE W ATLC HAS SHIFTED E AND IS NOW ALONG 60W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W CONTINUING ALONG 27N57W 24N68W 25N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E AND S OF THE AXIS. A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO S OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT ALONG 23N70W TO 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE 50 NM S OF THE TROUGH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY AS A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA AND CATCHES UP WITH THE ORIGINAL FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 35N29W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON