000 AXNT20 KNHC 101145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N20W TO 15N18W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY E OF 21W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 16W-21W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N57W TO 17N54W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE...LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES AN OVERALL WESTWARD MOVEMENT...MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WELL DISPLACED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N43W TO 14N60W AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N21W TO 04N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 01N42W TO 07N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM NORTH AND 90 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN BETWEEN 21W-37W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-12N BETWEEN 37W-48W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 29N94W TO A BASE NEAR 22N87W. MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 29N E OF 92W AS A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 31N88W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-93W THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 90W. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD GRADUALLY WESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN REMAIN TRANQUIL AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE BASIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS RESULTING IN OVERALL CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IS GENERATING THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 81W-85W. OTHERWISE...STRONG TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W-88W REACHING 30 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. THE ENHANCED TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SE CONUS...AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC REGION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING THAT IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT ANALYZED FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS N OF 28N W OF 77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N73W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 54W NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO A BASE NEAR 24N64W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N54W S-SW TO 27N60W TO 24N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS N OF 24N BETWEEN 50W-65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N29W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN