000 AXNT20 KNHC 091746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N47W TO 9N50W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE...BUT STILL ALIGNS WELL WITH A WEAK SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1320 UTC INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ REGION FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 48W-52W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 12N16W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N21W ALONG 5N34W 10N48W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 25W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 85W-93W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF COASTAL FLORIDA...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...AND LOUISIANA. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING ACROSS SOME THESE AREAS WITH THE MAJORITY UNDER FLOOD WATCH. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER IS CAUSED BY THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT THAT BORDERS THE NRN GULF FROM NE FLORIDA ALONG 30N TO S CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN TEXAS AND THE WRN GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE NW GULF ALONG 29N92W TO 26N96W CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS KEEPING THE SW GULF UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY SLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN GULF. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECT TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM GUATEMALA TO CENTRAL CUBA. DRY AIR ALOFT IS WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE SUPPORTING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS CREATING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PAC MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S IS SUPPORTING STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 79W-85W...AS WELL AS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 83W-85W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER NE VENEZUELA. THIS RIDGE IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO MOVE EWD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N58W 30N64W 27N70W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NE FLORIDA AT 30N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE FRONT ALONG 28N64W 25N74W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH WITH AN AREA EXTENDING TO THE N...N OF 28N BETWEEN 58W-62W. SOME SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NEAR THE NE FLORIDA COAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF 77W. AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE N...THE FRONT WILL SPLIT LEAVING THE ERN PORTION TO CONTINUE SE AS A COLD FRONT WHILE THE WRN HALF LIFTS N AND DISSIPATES. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N42W. THE UPPER LOW IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N30W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON