000 AXNT20 KNHC 082349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N40W TO 7N41W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN EQUALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ REGION WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 37W-43W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W ALONG 6N30W 8N41W 7N59W. BESIDES NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 20W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 44W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N83W TO 30N89W 28N93W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 24N97W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE SEABOARD AS WELL AS A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER TEXAS WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE ERN GULF. THE COMBINATION OF THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N E OF 91W AS WELL AS SIMILAR ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL TEXAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WRN GULF BETWEEN 91W-94W. DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE FAR WRN GULF AS WELL AS THE FAR SW GULF UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DRIFT S AND E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WRN GULF SPLITS FROM IT AND DRIFTS WWD. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CUBA TO THE SE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO PANAMA PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS SRN CENTRAL AMERICA...COLOMBIA...AND THE WATERS TO THE N. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY ACROSS PANAMA AND COAST RICA WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ERN PORTION OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC TO HISPANIOLA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THAT AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE STRONG TRADEWIND FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOIST ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE WRN ATLC BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N70W 29N76W 29N81W. A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS S OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG 29N61W 26N72W 26N80W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE N OF THIS BOUNDARY AND OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N27W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE W NEAR 24N42W...BUT IT IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N30W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING ACROSS NW AFRICA TO S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON