000 AXNT20 KNHC 062343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 9N25W TO 5N29W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 26W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N65W TO 12N67W MOVING WNW NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO TO NW VENEZUELA. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 66W-68W. THE REMAINDER IS HIGH CLOUD COVER AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W CONTINUING TO 7N23W. THE ITCZ PICKS UP AT 5N31W ON THE W SIDE OF TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUES TO 5N54W. BESIDES NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 16W-20W...AND FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 21W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 28N87W 25N93W 20N95W. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CURRENTLY STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA COAST AND 88W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ALONG THE GULF COASTLINE ESPECIALLY THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PARALLELS THE COAST AND IS JUST INLAND. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE NE CONUS AND NW ATLC. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS TEXAS AND MEXICO WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING MOIST SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SW GULF. THE DRY AIR IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IN THE SW GULF AND THE NW GULF EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTLINE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY WITH POSSIBLE WWD DRIFTING...WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST WILL DIP S. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NICARAGUA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...MUCH OF GUATEMALA...AND PORTIONS OF THE REMAINING CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NRN COLOMBIA. MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE S OF PUERTO RICO...AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO TO VENEZUELA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N OF THE AREA ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND NW ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS HELPING SUPPORT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 69W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE NW BAHAMAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIP S IN TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TWO CENTERS NEAR 16N51W AND 28N31W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS NEAR 26N39W...BUT IT IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 29N42W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM NW AFRICA E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15N27W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON