000 AXNT20 KNHC 052354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN ATLC ALONG 12N22W TO 5N25W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WWD SHORTLY. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 22W-26W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N55W TO 9N59W MOVING NW NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 58W-63W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 11N15W CONTINUING TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ PICKS UP AT 5N27W ON THE W SIDE OF TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N37W 4N48W. BESIDES NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 34W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AMPLE MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND ERN GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MEXICO AND SW TEXAS. THIS PATTERN PROVIDES MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN AND IS HELPING SUPPORT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 84W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DOT MUCH OF FLORIDA ESPECIALLY OVER THE PANHANDLE. NUMEROUS AND STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE NE MEXICO COAST. AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 27N91W TO 30N94W. THIS MAY BE ENHANCING SOME OF THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE AXIS. THE FAR WRN GULF IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE BASIN DUE TO A SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY IN THE WRN GULF FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MOIST CONDITIONS REMAINING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STAYS VERY SIMILAR. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NICARAGUA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE W ATLC. THE MAJORITY OF THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE MOSTLY DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE DRY AIR IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA PARTIALLY INFLUENCED BY THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NRN COLOMBIA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO IMPACTING THE ERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS E OF 63W DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTING WWD AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE STILL E OF THE ISLANDS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD TOWARDS THE BASIN. CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS FLORIDA AND OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC WHICH IS HELPING PRODUCE STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 64W-80W...AS WELL AS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 77W-81W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF 22N W OF 70W. A LINE OF SHOWERS...REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATED FRONT...EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO 24N65W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 47W SUPPORTING AN EQUALLY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 28N36W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM NW AFRICA ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 20N31W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON