000 AXNT20 KNHC 050005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN ATLC ALONG 12N21W TO 6N23W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A SURGE IN MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ REGION FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 18W-26W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N51W TO 5N56W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY ALSO INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 51W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 52W-56W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ENDING AT THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W. THE ITCZ PICKS UP AT 6N25W ON THE W SIDE OF TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N27W 4N51W. BESIDES CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 33W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... DESPITE SURFACE RIDGING COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 23N78W TOWARDS THE NW GULF...AMPLE MOISTURE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF BEING DRAWN AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 85W WHICH IS PROVIDING MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 83W-93W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO NEAR THE NRN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE RANGING FROM 10-15 KT WITH AREA OF HIGHER WINDS IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE FORMING IN THE FAR SW GULF IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DRY AIR COVERS THE FAR WRN GULF W OF 94W PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN ACCOMPANIED BY MOIST CONDITIONS. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL FORM OVER THE WRN GULF AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE LATER IN THE WEEK. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. THE RIDGE SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH N OF CENTRAL CUBA AT 23N78W. WHILE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER WATER...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER ERN CUBA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH BOTH COUNTRIES TO A 1009 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA AT 9N75W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO VENEZUELA...BUT IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BESIDES A FEW UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 23N78W. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W CONTINUING ALONG 27N61W 24N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 40W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N26W THAT IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING ACROSS THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 25N31W CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON