000
AXNT20 KNHC 040554
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N45W 7N48W 3N49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 
12N16W TO 06N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES 
FROM 06N22W TO 4N30W 2N35W 2N43W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 
48W...TO 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 20W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE 
EAST OF 10W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 
10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 
24N102W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 108W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR ANDROS 
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO A SECOND 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 24N87W...TOWARD THE GULF COAST BETWEEN THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 93W. 
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF 91W. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 
85W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...ACROSS 
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 23N48W 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO A 14N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER...TO 7N71W NEAR THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER. SCATTERED 
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM 13N NEAR NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...
FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE 
SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 82W. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W 28N68W TO 22N72W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N65W...JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 27N73W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS WITHIN 240 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD 
FRONT...FROM 24N TO 30N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N52W 
24N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N57W 30N59W
27N63W 24N71W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 38N14W TO
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N25W AND 21N40W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR 20 KNOT 
WINDS THAT ARE RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT