000 AXNT20 KNHC 032348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N47W TO 10N42W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO STRETCH NORTHEAST DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHEARING ENERGY AWAY WHICH ORIGINATE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY HOWEVER STILL INDICATES AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 05N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N22W TO 02N36W TO 02N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 12W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N84W. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS... INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND THIS ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ISOLATED MOVING NORTH TOWARDS 24N BETWEEN 81W AND 91W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 30N86W. ASIDE FROM LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS NEAR THE HIGH CENTER...E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED CURRENTLY AND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE BASIN. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON BAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N84W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND BEYOND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. NORTH AND WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHICH ARE GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 82W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS OCCURRING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...DRIER AND STABLE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDS FROM 20N55W TO OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W... HOWEVER LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO GENERATE CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE ONTARIO AND EXTENDS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 29N75W. WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGHING IS WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N68W TO 28N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. EAST OF THE FRONT HOWEVER...MORE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N65W NEAR BERMUDA SW TO NEAR 26N72W. A NARROW STRIP OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED FROM 23N80W TO 32N61W AND ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS TRAIL FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 33N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N25W THEN TO A 1021 HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N29W THEN W-SW TO A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 22N59W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND OVERALL CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL N OF 10N E OF 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN