000 AXNT20 KNHC 031737 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N40W TO 2N45W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 40W-47W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N21W TO 2N35W TO 3N44W TO N BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 12W-15W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 30W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 47W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. 10 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 24N AND E OF 86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE SE TO THE N BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FAIR WEATHER. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE W FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 78W-81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 83W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 85W-88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 79W-85W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF HONDURAS NEAR 18N86W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TRINIDAD AND BARBADOS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 73W-75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM 27N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 62W-68W. THIS CONVECTION IS MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N57W. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N39W 27N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT BOTH COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA