000 AXNT20 KNHC 021203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N36W TO 10N33W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N TO 9N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N20W TO 08N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO A BASE OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS ALONG 28N. THE TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO FRACTURE WITH THE MAIN ENERGY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE TROUGH CONTINUED TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W TO 28N88W. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 25N85W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE EXTREME WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EAST OF THE BASIN BY LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE A 1015 MB HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 26N92W. THIS HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY EARLY SUNDAY AND PROVIDE E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NNE OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO BEYOND 32N67W. ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM GUATEMALA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. GIVEN THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60-120 NM EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W ALONG THE E COAST OF THE YUCATCAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL BELIZE. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS CENTERED 120 NM SSE OF COZUMEL WHERE LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH WAS OCCURRING NEAR PUERTO CORTES HONDURAS HAS WEAKEND CONSIDERABLY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N68W. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 65W-80W THIS EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SW NORTH ATLC W OF 75W AS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER EASTERN CUBA TO BEYOND 32N67W. MUCH OF THE FLOW WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS DIFFLUENT AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND WITHIN 45-60 NM OF A LINE FROM 32N76W TO 29N78W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITHIN ANOTHER AREA OF DIFLUENT FLOW WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 60W-67W. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGH CENTERS NEAR 23N53W AND 24N36W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 50W. THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST PRODUCT IMAGERY SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS SHROUDED IN SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST S OF 25N E OF 40W...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF DUST FOCUSED FROM 15N TO 25N E OF 30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB