000 AXNT20 KNHC 020550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N33W TO 11N31W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 26W-30W AND IS MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 08N25W TO 07N32W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO OVER THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST NEAR 30N89W TO A BASE OVER THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 28N91W. THE TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BUT CONTINUED TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 28N91W. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N84W TO 25N85W TO THE YUCATAN COAST NEAR 21N87W AND BISECTS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EAST OF THE BASIN BY LATER TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN GULF EARLY SUNDAY AND PROVIDE E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N81W WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NNE OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO BEYOND 32N69W. ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM GUATEMALA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARDS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. GIVEN THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17N88W/NEAR BELIZE CITY TO 20N86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS MOISTURE AND CONVECTION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE ASSOCIATED SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND MOST OF NICARAGUA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...ALTHOUGH AN ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WAS OCCURRING NEAR PUERTO CORTES HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N58W TO THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N68W. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 65W-80W THIS EVENING. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME SE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N E OF 65W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SW NORTH ATLC W OF 75W AS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER EASTERN CUBA TO BEYOND 32N69W. MUCH OF THE FLOW WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS DIFFLUENT AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE BAHAMAS...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN HALF OF CUBA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITHIN ANOTHER AREA OF DIFLUENT FLOW WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 58W-66W. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N46W AND A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 26N30W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 50W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WHICH BRUSHED THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 23W. ASIDE FROM A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT...LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST PRODUCT IMAGERY SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS SHROUDED IN SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST S OF 25N E OF 40W...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF DUST FOCUSED FROM 15N TO 25N E OF 30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB