000 AXNT20 KNHC 011040 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS WAVE...WITH STRONGEST SIGNAL APPEARING AT 700 HPA. NO SURFACE SIGNAL HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES...WHILE TPW ANIMATIONS REVEAL CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT A MOISTURE MAXIMUM CENTERED NEAR 05.5N28W. THE DAKAR UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED THIS WAVE PASSING THE STATION ALOFT AROUND 12Z ON 30 MAY. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 06N27W...AND HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS SUGGESTED ALONG 10W AND POISED TO EXIT W AFRICA IN THE NEXT 12-18 HRS. A WEAKENING AND ILL DEFINED CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ESTIMATED FROM W VENEZUELA ALONG 70W THROUGH EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 22N66W. STRAIGHT LINE SELY WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION BELOW 700 HPA ARE AIDING IN MASKING THE WAVE SIGNAL AND WEAKENING THE WAVE STRUCTURE. TPW ANIMATIONS SHOW HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE S OF 15N. 40-50 KT OF NW WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS ALSO ACTING TO DECAPITATE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SAL BEHIND THE WAVE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS NOW ACROSS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN...PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITH AND BEHIND THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BUT ARE BEING DESTROYED BY THE STRONG WIND SHEAR W OF 63W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 13.5N16W TO NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 07N26W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 27W NEAR 05N29W TO THE MOUTH OF THE AMAZON ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 18W AND 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 32W AND 40W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PERTURBATION AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... PERSISTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN N-NE TO BEYOND 32N74W HAS MAINTAINED ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER TROUGHING FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF SW THROUGH S CENTRAL GULF THE PAST FEW DAYS. A NEGATIVE TILT MIDDLE/UPPER CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST AND HAS BEEN IGNITING VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE SWEEP GRADUALLY E AND IS NUDGING THE LINGERING TROUGH EWD AHEAD OF IT...AND ARE LIKELY TO MERGE ACROSS THE NE GULF LATER TODAY. AN ELONGATED VORT CENTER HAS SLOWLY EJECTED FROM THE BASE OF THE LINGERING TROUGH DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND WAS MOVING NE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND TOWARDS EXTREME SW FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING VERTICAL LIFT ACROSS A ZONE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF...INDUCING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM LA ISLA DE JUVENTUD CUBA N AND NE ACROSS THE W END OF CUBA...THE SE GULF AND INTO EXTREME S FLORIDA. 09Z SURFACE PRES ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A TROUGH MAY HAVE FORMED NE TO SW FROM OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SW FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND MAY ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS IN PLACE TODAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NE ACROSS S FLORIDA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...AND CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY SHEARED BY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 82W OVERNIGHT HAS DIMINISHED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LIFTED NE INTO THE SE GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ON AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N79W WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 65W. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...WITH SLY FLOW OPENING UP INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SAL BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N56W IS CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN UPPER FLOW BUT IS CURRENTLY BEING NUDGED EWD BY UPSTREAM PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE TOP OF W CARIB RIDGE N OF 35N. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BETWEEN 50W AND 60W ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CUT OFF UPPER CYCLONE. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO NE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 11N63W. AN UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS SE OF TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N FROM W COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 60W. A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N48W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING E TO 32W AND W TO NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADEWINDS ARE FOUND S OF THIS RIDGE BETWEEN 30W AND 55W...WHERE A VERY EXPANSIVE AREA OF SAL DOMINATES MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC...S OF 20N TO NEAR THE ITCZ...AND FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE W TO NEAR 60W. A MID LATITUDE COLD FRONT ENTERS NE PORTIONS FROM NEAR 31N24W TO 29N32W WITH WEAK STRATIFORM PRECIP ALONG AND TO 120 NM SE OF THIS DYING FRONT. MULTI LAYERED LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 50W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 60W. AS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...STRONG AND ACTIVE CONVECTION MOVING NE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME S FLORIDA HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO EXIT THE SE FLORIDA COAST AND SPREAD NE INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO TO SHIFT NE AND E ACROSS THE S AND CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING