000 AXNT20 KNHC 010556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS WAVE...WITH STRONGEST SIGNAL APPEARING AT 700 HPA. NO SURFACE SIGNAL HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES...WHILE TPW ANIMATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO REVEAL CYCLONIC TURNING CENTERED ALONG 06N27W. THE DAKAR UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALS THIS WAVE PASSING THE STATION ALOFT AROUND 12Z ON 30 MAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 06N27W. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS SUGGESTED ALONG 10W AND POISED TO EXIT W AFRICA IN THE NEXT 18-24 HRS. A WEAKENING AND ILL DEFINED CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ESTIMATED FROM W VENEZUELA NEAR 68W THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 20N65W. STRAIGHT LINE SELY WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION BELOW 700 HPA ARE AIDING IN MASKING THE WAVE SIGNAL AND WEAKENING THE WAVE STRUCTURE. TPW ANIMATIONS SHOW HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE S OF 15N. 40-50 KT OF NW WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN ARE ALSO ACTING TO WEAKEN THE WAVE. SAL BEHIND THE WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITH AND BEHIND THE WAVE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SPREAD FROM THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 14N67W EWD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 11N14W TO NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 07N26W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 27W NEAR 06N28W TO 03N35W TO THE COAST OF N BRAZIL NEAR 04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 16W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 31W AND 36W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN N-NE TO BEYOND 32N75W HAS MAINTAIN PERSISTENT ELONGATE MIDDLE/UPPER TROUGHING FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF SW THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THE PAST FEW DAYS. A NEGATIVE TILE MIDDLE/UPPER CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING E-SE ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST AND HAS BEEN IGNITING VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI. THE UPPER CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THROUGH S CENTRAL LOUISIANA EXTENDING SW INTO THE SE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AND ALONG THE FRONT HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE PAST 3 HOURS AS A JET SEGMENT E OF THE TROUGH HAS LIFTED OUT OF THE REGION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY N ACROSS THE SE GULF...WHERE A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS INDUCING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM LA ISLA DE JUVENTUD CUBA N-NW ACROSS THE W TIP OF CUBA TO THE SE GULF NEAR 24.5N85W. THIS STRONG CONVECTION IS OTHERWISE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION SPREADING FROM THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN TO ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF...WITH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE SW GULF DUE TO THE TYPICAL EVENING TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...AND IS BEING STRONGLY SHEARED BY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 82W...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS CONVERGING DUE TO THE LIFTING MONSOON TROUGH IN THE FAR EPAC...AND INSTABILITY INDUCED BY PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ON ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N79W WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 68W. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...WITH SLY FLOW OPENING UP INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 30N57W IS CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN UPPER FLOW AND IS CURRENTLY BEING NUDGED EWD BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER TOP OF W CARIB RIDGE. TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO NE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 11N64W. UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS SE OF TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N FROM W COAST OF AFRICA TO 55W. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24.5N46W EXTENDING E TO 35W AND W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. MODERATE NE TRADEWINDS ARE FOUND S OF THIS RIDGE BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. A MID LATITUDE COLD FRONT ENTERS NE PORTIONS FROM NEAR 31N25W TO 27N34W WITH WEAK STRATIFORM PRECIP ALONG AND TO 120 NM NW OF FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING