000 AXNT20 KNHC 310550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N56W TO 6N58W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 46W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 52W-57W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 9N13W TO 6N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W ALONG 2N34W 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 23W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS DRY AIR ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 26N88W IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN. AT 0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N87W TO 17N91W...AND IS HELPING PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THIS AREA ALSO LIES UNDER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS N OF CUBA FROM 23N-24N BETWEEN 83W-85W. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THAT HAS ALREADY MOVED ACROSS THE SE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD ACROSS FLORIDA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W IS PROVIDING MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS CUBA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER BELIZE AND THE FAR ERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER MUCH COSTA RICA AND PORTIONS OF PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO A 1006 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA AT 8N74W. MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE STILL E OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N E OF 65W. MOIST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC... A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS JUST OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 78W-80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO EXTEND FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 69W-80W...AND FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ONE AND CONTINUES ALONG 72W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG 60W SUPPORTING A FEW PATCHES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 25N59W AND 29N59W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ REGION IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 50W SUPPORTING A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 24N43W WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF ALONG 34W. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 13N32W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ. GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 45W WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON