000 AXNT20 KNHC 310002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF POST TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL AT 30/2100 UTC IS NEAR 34.9N 76.1W. BERYL IS ALSO ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. BERYL HAS LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND THUS HAS BEEN RENAMED. GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUE OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. SEE THE LAST FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N55W 6N57W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 51W-57W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 50W-55W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 6N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W TO 3N34W TO N BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-29W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N88W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 18N91W PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA...AND THE SE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 22N89W 15N92W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE TROUGH AT 18N91W. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA N OF 20N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 19N83W TO NICARAGUA AT 11N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 83W-86W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 77W-82W. FURTHER E...RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 68W-80W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N41W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N18W PRODUCING SIMILAR FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST ALSO EXTENDS FROM AFRICA TO 45W S OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER BERMUDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA