000 AXNT20 KNHC 301802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL AT 30/1500 UTC IS NEAR 34.2N 78.0W. BERYL IS ALSO ABOUT 5 MILES/10 KM TO THE WEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. THE CENTER OF BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LIKELIHOOD THAT BERYL WILL LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY IS HIGH. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W ABOUT EIGHT HOURS AGO APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED WITH TIME DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N54W 8N55W TO 4N55W IN SURINAME. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS COVERING THE AREA FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W ABOUT EIGHT HOURS AGO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY LINGERING RAINSHOWERS NOW COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO 4N25W AND 2N34W...BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER 2N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 54W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE WIND FIELD IN THAT AREA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 8W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA/THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER STARTED IN WESTERN GUATEMALA ABOUT EIGHT HOURS AGO AND IT HAS MOVED NORTHWARD STEADILY SINCE THEN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N88W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 94W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO A NORTHERN GUATEMALA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N82W 18N86W INTO WESTERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA INTO EASTERN HONDURAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND BEYOND 86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN IN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...AND ALONG THE COASTS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA FROM 9N TO 12N. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS ALONG THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 6N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL STILL IS MAKING HEADLINES. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NEAR THE AREA THAT SURROUNDS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL AND IT REACHES ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N63W...BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS FROM 26N63W TO 20N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N56W 27N60W 24N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THAT HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME DURING THE LAST EIGHT HOURS...IS FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 59W AND 68W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 28N37W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 32N45W ENDING NEAR 33N51W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 33N51W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N17W... THROUGH 32N19W...TO 26N29W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N41W...TO 24N52W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT