000 AXNT20 KNHC 291809 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL NEAR 31.5N 82.9W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC MAY 29 MOVING NE OR 050 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...BRINGING THE CENTER OF BERYL CLOSE TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BACK OVER WARM ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF 10N ALONG 51W/52W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AS INDICATED FROM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 50W-54W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO COAST OF GUINEA- BISSAU AT 12N16W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N21W TO 04N35W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 9W-20W AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 32W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 27N92W IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IN THE NE PORTION NEAR THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG 28N/29N FROM THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO 86W. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW AWAY FROM THE GULF...WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN FLORIDA TO THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N83W TO 16N87W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 16N-21W BETWEEN 82W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA... IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADE WIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS N OF COLOMBIA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 14N E OF 60W. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THE REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND PRODUCE OCCASIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA BEFORE MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL CONTINUES TO AFFECT NE FLORIDA...SE GEORGIA AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND N OF CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN 71W-81W ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE W ATLC. A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 32N63W TO A 1022 HIGH NEAR 24N41W TO 26N27W... PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE N CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OF 30N INTO THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 44W WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL