000 AXNT20 KNHC 291146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AS OF 0900 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 30.9N 83.4W...ABOUT 10 NM NW OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA...OR ABOUT 140 NM WSW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA. BERYL IS MOVING N AT 2 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. BERYL HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO HIT NE FLORIDA...SE GEORGIA...AND NOW SRN SOUTH CAROLINA MAINLY S AND E OF THE CENTER WITHIN 200 NM. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N49W TO 7N52W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 48W-54W...AND FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 46W-53W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N17W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N21W ALONG 5N36W 6N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 10W-19W...FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 24W-30W...FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 33W-41W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 37W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER MEXICO...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN FL TO THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS DRY AIR ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 28N90W IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NE CORNER. CYCLONIC FLOW AND AN OUTER RAINBAND ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ARE NEAR THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. THE LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BAND EXTENDS FROM 29N82W TO 30N87W. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NW AWAY FROM THE GULF...BUT IS DOING SO SLOWLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE NE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN FLORIDA TO THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N82W TO 16N85W IS HELPING PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-21W BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO EXTEND TOWARDS THE S FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 79W-83W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO A 1007 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA AT 9N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 73W PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS TO THE N OF COLOMBIA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE TRPCL ATLC IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARDS ISLANDS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 15N E OF 64W. MOISTURE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA AND COULD MOVE OVER LAND AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL CONTINUES TO IMPACT NE FLORIDA...SE GEORGIA AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING THE BAHAMAS FROM N OF CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN 71W-81W ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE FROM 26N57W TO 21N61W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 56W-62W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE N CENTRAL ATLC WITH A PORTION EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC TO NEAR 12N53W. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 25N43W AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N27W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 44W WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON