000 AXNT20 KNHC 290549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AS OF 0300 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 30.8N 83.4W...ABOUT 50 NM ENE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA...OR ABOUT 140 NM WSW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA. BERYL IS MOVING NW AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO HIT NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA MAINLY S AND E OF THE CENTER. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS IN AN OUTERBAND TO THE S ABOUT 100 NM FROM THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N46W TO 3N50W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE W SIDE OF AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W TO 7N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N22W ALONG 6N47W 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 24W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 36W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER MEXICO...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FL TO THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS DRY AIR ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 26N91W IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NE CORNER. CYCLONIC FLOW AND AN OUTER RAINBAND ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ARE NEAR THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. THE LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BAND EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 29N85W. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NW AWAY FROM THE GULF...BUT IS DOING SO SLOWLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE NE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 19N86W TO 15N86W IS HELPING PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 80W-84W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO JUST W OF JAMAICA. A FEW STRONG SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO A 1005 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA AT 8N74W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 73W PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS TO THE N OF COLOMBIA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARDS ISLANDS AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WWD. SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE ISLANDS AS THIS AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA AND COULD MOVE OVER LAND AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL CONTINUES TO IMPACT NE FLORIDA...SE GEORGIA AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 33N68W. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS N OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 67W-72W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE N CENTRAL ATLC WITH A PORTION EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR 13N54W. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES AROUND A PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS NEAR 26N44W...AND 27N28W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 44W WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON