000 AXNT20 KNHC 281802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WAS DOWNGRADED AT 26/1500 UTC AND LOCATED AT 30.5N 82.7W...APPROXIMATELY 60 MI WNW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...OR ABOUT 40 NM ESE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA. BERYL IS MOVING WNW AT 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO HIT NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 11N40W TO 07N46W DRIFTING W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH MOISTURE VALUES SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS...DUE IN LARGE PART TO A BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 18N45W TO 10N50W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AT 2358 UTC SHOWED WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE SURFACE FROM 10N42W TO 08N42W...NEAR A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS MINIMAL...AND THIS CONVECTION WAS LIKELY THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE MID LEVEL PORTION OF THE WAVE THAT PRESENTED WELL IN SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. A 1230 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH N TO NE FLOW N OF 09N W OF 45W...AN INDICATION THAT THE WAVE IS NOT MAKING MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW THE MID LEVEL WAVE IS NOW AROUND 48W S OF 12N IN AN AREA OF DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT 11N15W TO 08N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N20W TO 05N30W TO 07N40W...THEN RESUMES FROM 08N48W TO 10N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 28W AND 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N105W WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FL NEAR BERYL TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS DRY AIR ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 23N87W IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NE CORNER IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA WHERE BERYL IS APPROACHING THROUGH N CENTRAL FLORIDA ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING A TURN BACK TO THE NE WITHIN 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS HELPING PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED NEAR THIS CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM 20N83W TO 16N80W. SPEED CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH ARE TOGETHER SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SECOND AREA OF MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE STILL IN THE ATLC. ATLANTIC... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS NOW INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF BERYL WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR BERMUDA. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N65W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 24N60W TO 20N63W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TWO SHORTWAVES EXTENDING OFF OF IT ALONG 50W AND 35W. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH ALONG 40W N OF 26N. GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 40W...WHICH IS PROVIDING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ERN TRPCL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN