000 AXNT20 KNHC 281149 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AS OF 1200 UTC...BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 30.4N 82.5W...ABOUT 50 NM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...OR ABOUT 55 NM ESE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA. BERYL IS MOVING W AT 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 45 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT. RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO HIT NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER. A CLUSTER OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO FARTHER S FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 81W-82W...AS WELL AS OFFSHORE FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 78W-80W. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 13N42W TO 6N46W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH MOISTURE VALUES SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 39W-46W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N21W ALONG 4N31W 7N43W 5N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 13W-17W...FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 18W-27W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 27W-35. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 49W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N104W WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO LOUISIANA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS DRY AIR ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 28N91W IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NE CORNER. CYCLONIC FLOW AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERYL ARE NEAR THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W FOR A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE MAKING A TURN BACK TO THE NE WITHIN 24 HOURS. AS IT MOVES WWD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BERYL HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH NE OF THE BASIN TO ALLOW SURFACE RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS HELPING PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 77W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO S OF 15N BETWEEN 77W-84W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS COLOMBIA AND PORTIONS OF PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA ALONG 10N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 69W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SECOND AREA OF MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE STILL IN THE ATLC. ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS NOW INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF BERYL WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR 35N66W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N66W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 25N59W TO 20N59W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE AXIS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TWO SHORTWAVES EXTENDING OFF OF IT ALONG 53W AND 37W. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 30N41W TO 26N41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE AXIS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 35W-39W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH BISECTS A SURFACE RIDGE SPLITTING IT TO ALLOW TWO 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERS NEAR 26N45W AND 27N32W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N22W. GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 40W...WHICH IS PROVIDING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ERN TRPCL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON