000 AXNT20 KNHC 261749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.3W AT 26/1500 UTC...AROUND 230 MILES/375 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...AND 330 MILES/535 KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. BERYL IS MOVING SW AT 8 KT. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS ESTIMATED AT 1001 MB. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY...BUT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS APPARENT MAINLY WITHIN 75 NM SE SEMICIRCLE FROM THE STORM CENTER. EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM BERYL WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO NE FLORIDA...BRINGING HEIGHTENED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 19N43W TO 10N49W TO 04N50W. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 35N37W TO 20N50W...GIVING THE SURFACE WAVE A NE TO SW ORIENTATION. MODEST CONVECTION IS NOTED TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE...LIKELY INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW. THE WAVE IS NEAR THE LEADING EDGE A DRIER SAHARAN AIRMASS...EVIDENT N OF 11N E OF 40W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WAS EXTENDED A FURTHER NORTH IN THE 12 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS TO REFLECT BETTER CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED BY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE WAVE WILL SHIFT WEST REACHING 50W BY EARLY SUN...55W BY EARLY MON...AND 59W BY EARLY TUE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16571W ACROSS THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA IN NE COLOMBIA INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO. WIND DATA FROM BUOY AND LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WAVE IS VERY BROAD...BUT STACKS WELL WITH CYCLONIC TURING NOTED IN LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DISPLAYS. CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL DESPITE DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NOTED ON SATELLITE AND REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WAVE SO FAR ON SENSIBLE WEATHER IS TO ENHANCE TRADE WIND FLOW SLIGHTLY...AS FAR N AS THE N SIDE OF HISPANIOLA WHERE 20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED IN SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE WAVE SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON...AND INTERACTS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE WILL LOSE ITS DISTINCT IDENTITY THROUGH SUN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND STALLS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE SENEGAL/GAMBIA COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 09N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N20W TO 04N40W TO 02N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY NORTHERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN THE UPPER OUTFLOW OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL AND DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS IS KEEPING THE SKIES GENERALLY CLOUD FREE ACROSS THE GULF. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED. AT THE SURFACE...BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTHERN YUCATAN TO THE SOUTHEAST GULF NEAR 25N85W. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 15 TO 20 KT SE FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF...SOUTH OF HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SOUTH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL NEAR 32N76W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOSE TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO SE NICARAGUA...LIKELY DUE TO WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AIDED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SE PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FRESH TRADES COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS MIGRATING THROUGH 71W...BUT WILL SHIFT W AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ON WINDS AND SEAS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS TAPERING OFF FROM CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TOWARD BERMUDA...IN THE SW FLOW TO THE EAST OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL. THIS MOIST FLOW HAD BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTINUOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS IN THE PREVIOUS 2 TO 3 DAYS...BUT THIS IS STARTING TO DIMINISH. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW SURFACE IS NOTE W OF 65W OUTSIDE THE VICINITY OF BERYL...EXCEPT FOR 20 KT FLOW N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS/CAICOS. FURTHER EAST...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 35N37W TO 20N50W. DRY...SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ARE INHIBITING CONVECTIVE GROWTH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. EAST OF 40W...SAHARAN DUST IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...N OF 11N. FRESH N TO NE FLOW IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF NW AFRICA...TO THE SE OF 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N25W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN