000 AXNT20 KNHC 261143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AT 26/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL AT 26/1200 UTC IS NEAR 32.0N 76.0W...ABOUT 175 MILES/280 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA...AND 240 MILES/385 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 4 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N78W AT THE CUBA COAST...TO 26N74W BEYOND 32N70W. A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC...IS 9.70 INCHES ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N46W 7N48W 2N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N66W...TO CURACAO... TO 10N70W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ON TOP OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N20W AND 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N24W 4N35W 2N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS BETWEEN 10W AND 40W AND SCATTERED STRONG IN THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 3N TO THE EAST OF 5W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A 95W RIDGE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS AWAY FROM THE AREA THAT SURROUNDS SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL...PASSING ACROSS FLORIDA...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER...THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND 100W...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE MARINE WEATHER TO THE WEST OF 88W FOR 20 KNOT WINDS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N66W...TO CURACAO...TO 10N70W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ON TOP OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS RIDING ON TOP OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THE RIDGE RUNS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...BEYOND CUBA AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N FROM 75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 83W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 85W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N22W TO 20N34W 12N48W AND NORTHERN GUYANA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS PUSHING ITSELF MORE TO THE SOUTH...PASSING THROUGH 32N50W TO 22N51W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE IS CONNECTED BY A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N26W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N44W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET...TO THE WEST OF 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT