000 AXNT20 KNHC 260004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N75W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD TO THE NW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG A 180 NM WIDE SWATH FROM 32N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 25N77W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N79W. SHOWERS CONTINUE N OF 32N AND WRAP AROUND THE N SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER. HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM CENTRAL CUBA INDICATE RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 6-20 INCHES WHICH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THIS AREA. FREEPORT BAHAMAS REPORTED A 24-HOUR TOTAL OF 9.7 INCHES. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES STRONG WINDS UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE THE LOW CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED AT THIS TIME...UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. INTERESTS IN THE SE UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 13N41W TO 4N45W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE W SIDE OF A SURGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 41W-45W. SAHARAN DUST HAS REACHED THE TROPICAL WAVE AND WILL HAMPER FURTHER CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 15N64W TO 10N65W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE ERN SIDE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 61W-70W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 13N16W CONTINUING OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 9N18W 6N22W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N22W TO 5N30W TO 7N44W TO FRENCH GUIANA AT 5N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 18W-24W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 28W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOWEVER OVER INLAND SW FLORIDA S OF FORT MYERS...AND OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 21N82W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 16N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 79W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N72W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SHOWERS TO MOVE W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A GALE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N63W. A SIMILAR 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N28W. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVELS BESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING RAIN AND SHOWERS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 41W-51W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA