000 AXNT20 KNHC 251148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N76W TO 30N78W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N78W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N85W...THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO WESTERN EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W...AND FROM 18N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO COVERS PARTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS AREA HAS BEEN CLOUDY AND RAINY FOR THE LAST FOUR TO FIVE DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE LOW CENTER SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. RESIDENTS WHO LIVE ALONG AND/OR WHO OWN PROPERTY THAT IS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE THAT IS IN YOUR AREA FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SITUATION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N41W 4N43W. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION ALSO IS PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N61W 12N63W 8N63W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE GUINEA-BISSAU COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 6N20W TO 4N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N32W TO 3N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE EAST OF 6W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 26W AND 33W AND FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE BUD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND EVEN POSSIBLY REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM FLORIDA...JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...NORTHWARD...BEYOND THE AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N87W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE MARINE WEATHER TO THE WEST OF 88W FOR 20 KNOT WINDS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS RIDING ON TOP OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THE RIDGE RUNS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...BEYOND CUBA AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 15N47W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 8N60W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N61W 12N63W 8N63W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION THAT STILL ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 10N86W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W...INCLUDING IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...BETWEEN 66W AND 81W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 22N37W 15N47W AND 8N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED THROUGH 32N43W TO 28N41W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N33W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 36N53W 31N56W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N64W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE TRADEWIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 44W AND 57W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT