000 AXNT20 KNHC 250604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N79W...BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. IT HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD...GRADUALLY...DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N78W 29N79W...TO THE 1008 MB LOW CENTER...TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W...TO 19N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W...AND FROM CUBA TO ANDROS ISLAND BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS PARTS OF CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. THIS AREA HAS BEEN CLOUDY AND RAINY FOR THE LAST FOUR TO FIVE DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS STILL ARE POSSIBLE IN SECTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RESIDENTS WHO LIVE ALONG AND/OR WHO OWN PROPERTY THAT IS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE THAT IS IN YOUR AREA FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SITUATION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N40W 8N41W 3N42W. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION ALSO IS PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N60W 12N62W 8N63W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W. SOME OF THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME NEW AREAS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FORMING...DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE GUINEA-BISSAU COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 8N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N23W TO 5N26W 6N36W 3N47W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 4N15W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 9N TO THE EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE BUD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND EVEN POSSIBLY REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM FLORIDA...JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...NORTHWARD...BEYOND THE AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N86W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE MARINE WEATHER TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 93W...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FEET.TO THE WEST OF 95W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS RIDING ON TOP OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THE RIDGE RUNS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...BEYOND CUBA AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG 30N44W BEYOND 32N45W. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 14N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 8N59W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N60W 12N62W 8N63W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W. SOME OF THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME NEW AREAS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FORMING...DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION THAT STILL ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N79W IN PANAMA BEYOND 8N83W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 7N77W...AND IN WESTERN PANAMA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...BETWEEN 65W AND 81W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N60W 12N62W 8N63W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W. SOME OF THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME NEW AREAS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FORMING...DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 14N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 8N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 21N35W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 13N50W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 50W...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N20N 28N30W 27N42W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N44W TO 30N57W 30N72W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE TRADEWIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT