000 AXNT20 KNHC 241746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS THE N AND CURRENTLY IS IMPACTING THE FLORIDA STRAITS...SE FLORIDA...AND THE NW BAHAMAS. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER ALONG 29N78W TO THE LOW AND CONTINUING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AT 20N85W. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CURRENTLY STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING CENTRAL CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 77W-81W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FARTHER N ACROSS SE FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 73W-80W. REPORTS FROM CUBA INDICATE THAT AREAS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION HAVE RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN UP TO 8 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WITH MORE RAIN ON THE WAY THE THREAT FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS POSSIBLE. SE FLORIDA INCLUDING MIAMI...AND THE BAHAMAS INCLUDING FREEPORT HAVE ALSO REPORTED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA AND THE INCREASED RAIN TODAY WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KT HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GET BETTER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N24W TO 5N38W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES W OF A SURGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE WAVE LIKELY DUE TO AFRICAN DUST TO THE N...E...AND W OF THE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N57W TO 8N60W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WAVE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE AXIS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 56W-59W...AND W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE SRN COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N13W CONTINUING OVER THE E ATLC WATERS TO 4N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N19W ALONG 6N38W 4N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 13W-16W...FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 22W-26W...AND ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 43W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS S FLORIDA...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS E OF THE GULF. SE-S FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF REACHING UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER THE NW CORNER. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 23N82W TO 20N85W. THE SURFACE LOW PREVIOUSLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS NOW SHIFTED N TOWARDS S FLORIDA. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE NOW RESIDES OVER THE FAR W ATLC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...SOME HIGH MOISTURE STILL REMAINS OVER CUBA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY S OF CENTRAL CUBA FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 75W-81W. THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DOT MUCH OF SRN CENTRAL AMERICA S OF HONDURAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PAC MONSOON TROUGH. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NICARAGUA TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND INTO THE ATLC. THIS DRY AIR IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...ENHANCED MOISTURE AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE STILL E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 61W-67W. THE WAVE IS WEAK...BUT ENHANCED MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT AND WILL ADVECT WWD. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. THE MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT N AS THE SYSTEM MOVES N OR NE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE IMPACTING AREAS NEAR SE FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR FULL DETAILS. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 65W IS HELPING ENHANCE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A PAIR OF 1029 MB HIGHS AT 34N43W AND 36N37W WHICH ARE PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TOWARDS S AMERICA NEAR 12N53W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N19W TO 27N36W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE AXIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE AREA OF DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 55W EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON