000 AXNT20 KNHC 241149 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N34W 6N36W 1N37W. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO IS PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N56W 10N57W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF GUYANA THAT IS NEAR 7N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 54W AND 66W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 21N35W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 13N50W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IS INTERACTING WITH THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 3N25W 4N28W 1N35W 1N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 54W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE 14N56W 7N57W TROPICAL WAVE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR APPEARS IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...EVEN PUSHING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS AFFECTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS. THE COMPARATIVELY DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INCLUDING SOUTH FLORIDA... FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...HAVE BEEN PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE DRIER AIR. THE DRIER AIR NOW IS TO THE EAST OF 32N77W 25N80W 20N83W 16N86W ALONG THE HONDURAS COAST. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING AROUND A 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE MARINE WEATHER FOR 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST OF 95W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...BEYOND CUBA TO THE EAST OF 80W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 21N35W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 13N50W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TOWARD THE AREA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...WITH THE RIDGE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 66W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N81W. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 18N83W AND CENTRAL HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 81W...BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM COSTA RICA INTO WESTERN GUATEMALA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...EITHER TO THE EAST OF 77W OR TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 26N67W BEYOND 32N53W. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN IN MUCH OF THE SAME AREA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SOME BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 21N35W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 13N50W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 50W...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N20N 28N30W 27N42W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N44W TO 30N57W 30N72W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF 65W...WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-FLORIDA STRAITS SURFACE TROUGH... AND TO THE WEST OF 45W WITH TRADE WIND FLOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT