000 AXNT20 KNHC 232348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N32W TO 12N31W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE LIKELY DUE TO SAHARAN DUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N54W TO 13N52W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE WAVE INTERACTED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NOW EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. WHILE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE PEELED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...PARTIAL LEFTOVER ENERGY CONTINUES WESTWARD AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINING SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 49W-57W. SOME OF THIS LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO IMPACT NE VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 04N16W TO 03N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 09W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 18W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE GULF BASIN WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA TO A BASE NEAR 26N98W. WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS... HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS FLOW IS COMPRISED OF VERY DRY AIR. WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE CURRENTLY OR ADVECTION OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N88W HOLDS STRONG ACROSS THE BASIN AS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS SURROUND THE HIGH WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT OBSERVED W OF 92W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE SE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND LEAVING MOSTLY MODERATE E-SE WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NARROW SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS NEAR 14N86W NE ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W TO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N83W TO 16N86W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22N78W TO 13N86W OVER INTERIOR NICARAGUA. THIS AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS CUBA AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIAL MUDSLIDES REMAINS HIGH. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH SURFACE TROUGHING DAMPENING OUT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THE WEEKEND. EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADES CURRENTLY W OF 78W WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE WESTWARD BY FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST- NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. FARTHER EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE S OF 15N E OF 64W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA. AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL HELP TO PROMOTE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N62W IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA STRETCHING NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 68W-79W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATION SUPPORTS BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N45W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLC EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 32N22W TO 29N30W TO 28N40W TO 30N48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 16N22W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 50W WITH CLEARING AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN