000 AXNT20 KNHC 230559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N27W 6N29W 2N29W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N52W 10N54W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 6N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 30N37W TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA IS INTERACTING WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH STOPS IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 3N13N AND IT CONTINUES TO 4N20W 6N25W 1N43W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 25W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A GEORGIA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA...AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO EAST TEXAS. ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS AFFECTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N94W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM HONDURAS BEYOND THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N45W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH STARTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...REACHING A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N84W...CROSSING THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...FROM 20N TO CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...AND IN EXTREME NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EAST CENTRAL COASTAL NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 74W AND BEYOND 82W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 27N72W BEYOND CENTRAL CUBA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH 30N37W TO 23N45W...ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 15N... MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W...TO 27N32W 28N45W...AND BEYOND A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N53W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N/23N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT