000
AXNT20 KNHC 181731
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 10 KT. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 18W-23W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N23W TO 3N40W TO N BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN THE PRIME 
MERIDIAN AND 8W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-6N 
BETWEEN 35W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 
30N92W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ELSEWHERE...BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL...W CUBA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 86W 
AND S OF 24N. SURFACE WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE 
GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S GULF S OF 
24N. A 70-90 KT UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. 
EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER SE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 
CENTRAL HONDURAS ALONG 87W. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE 
TROUGH AXIS OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 18N87W. BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 
82W-84W. MORE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDELY 
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA...AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS N OF 16N 
BETWEEN 64W-69W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W. 
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 
65W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN AND 
SHOWERS TO BE OVER HISPANIOLA AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA FROM 
31N78W TO 30N81W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO 
27N80W. 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE TROUGH. A LARGE 1034 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 42N39W. 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND W ATLANTIC 
W OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 58W-60W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH 
CAROLINA NEAR 34N78W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER 
IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 66W-70W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA