000 AXNT20 KNHC 180603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W TO THE SOUTH OF 13W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 22W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W TO 13N59W 8N59W. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE IS RELATED TO THE 18N59W-TO-NORTHERN GUYANA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ IS ALONG 7N23W 4N37W 3N45W...ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL...TO NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF 2N TO THE EAST OF 3W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N19W 5N32W 4N43W 4N51W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W...AND INCLUDING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 24N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 23N IN THE GULF. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 69W AND 27N82W 22N90W...THAT INCLUDES THE EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES...NOW FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO 25N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS...THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N87W...ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM HISPANIOLA AND CUBA BEYOND 32N...TO THE WEST OF 32N65W 25N67W 20N70W. BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS FLORIDA FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF GEORGIA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS COURTESY OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA-BEYOND CUBA RIDGE. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 72W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA MAY BE HELPING THE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS INLAND AREAS FROM WESTERN NICARAGUA INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS...ACROSS EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 18N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 13N59W...TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHERN GUYANA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N...BEYOND 8N83W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 78W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 18N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 13N59W...TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHERN GUYANA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N41W TO 27N46W 22N55W...ALONG THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHERN GUYANA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 18N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 9 FEET SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W... AND IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND 71W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT