000
AXNT20 KNHC 151725
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 5N22W TO 4N40W TO N BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 
THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 11W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO 
FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 13W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 38W-44W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 31N86W 
TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
AT 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  
SURFACE WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE GULF...ON BOTH SIDES 
OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER 
THE GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE E GULF 
E OF 90W...AND INLAND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND FOR A SURFACE TROUGH TO 
EXTEND FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH 
RAIN AND SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL AIRMASS RAIN AND 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA...AND OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W 
TO INCLUDE W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR 
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION HAS ADVECTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S 
OF 13N E OF 63W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN. A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 
13N89W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL 
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND LITTLE CHANGE 
ELSEWHERE.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 44N50W. 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 40W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 72W N 
OF 22N TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE BAHAMAS. A 1013 MB NON-TROPICAL 
LOW IS CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N27W. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM IS 
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN THE TROPICS...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 
50W-60W. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION TO BE E AND N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA