000 AXNT20 KNHC 121038 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W 6N30W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-17W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-35W AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE IS THE DOMINATING THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER HONDURAS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NE FLORIDA CONTINUING OVER NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER E OKLAHOMA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO OVER TEXAS MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W-91W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW OVER E TEXAS JUST N OF CORPUS CHRISTI ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST INTO THE N GULF TO NEAR 30N87W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS N OF 29N. THE UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN TO 25N87W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND DRIFT E ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH LATE MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TO 70W AND IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER HONDURAS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 70W WITH PATCHES OF HAZE BEING REPORTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 60W-75W EXTENDING S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W TO 28N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES TO E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N68W TO E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N73W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 20N63W 26N63W TO 31N61W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-60W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 34N31W SUPPORTING A DEEPENING 1009 MB LOW NEAR 32N32W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING N OF THE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N24W EXTENDING TO 25N27W. A JET STREAM IS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 110 WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 25N35W TO BEYOND 32N23W. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC MAINLY S OF 20N E OF 50W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL GLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING E FROM THE CAROLINAS AND WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS MAINLY N OF 25N THROUGH LATE SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE CONUS MON WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY LATE WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW