000 AXNT20 KNHC 101746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF NEW GUINEA AT 12N16W CROSSING OVER ATLC WATERS TO 6N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N25W ALONG 4N32W 2N41W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 22W-25W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 30W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ERN GULF ALONG 28N81W TO 27N87W. FEW CLOUDS AND ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG IT. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE EXCEPT NEAR THE FRONT. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AT 31N106W. NONE OF THE ACTIVITY IS OVER THE GULF WATERS...BUT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NE PLACING THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER ERN TEXAS..THE SURROUNDING STATES...AND THE NW GULF. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OUT THE AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO VENEZUELA. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN PUERTO RICO AT 18N67W TO N OF COLOMBIA ALONG 16N71W TO 12N74W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS E OF THE AXIS IMPACTING MANY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 57W N OF 12N. SEVERAL ISLANDS HAVE RECEIVED HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAIN INCLUDING BARBADOS REPORTING A 24-HR TOTAL OF .43 INCHES...AND TRINIDAD REPORTING 1.02 INCHES. TODAY STORMS WILL LIKELY RAISE THOSE AMOUNTS...AND DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THESE ISLANDS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT WWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE RAIN DURING THIS TIME. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NE CONUS INTO THE FAR W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N75W TO THE FLORIDA COAST AT 28N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT ALONG 31N75W TO 27N79W. STRONG SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUING N OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E ALONG 55W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE S OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS HELPING PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 54W-65W CONTINUING FARTHER INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN ATLC JUST W OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. IT SUPPORTS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N25W CONTINUING ALONG 25N30W 22N36W DISSIPATING TO 21N51W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS NW OF THE FRONT ALONG 32N30W 28N36W 26N44W DEPICTING A SECOND WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 14W SUPPORTS A VERY WEAK AND NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FAR E ATLC AROUND A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 28N20W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON