000 AXNT20 KNHC 091134 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 6N19W 5N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N23W TO 3N30W TO 4N34W AND 4N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 2N5W AND FROM 4N TO THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 4W AND 7W...FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 12W AND 21W... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 11N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN MEXICO LEADS TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 13N...AND THEN BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE...AND THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W. A COLD FRONT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W TO 28N95W...AND THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD ARIZONA. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS FROM 20N TO 22N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS FROM 21N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 13N...AND BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...IN AND AROUND JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. THE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 11N67W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 14N60W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF THE CLOUDINESS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 08/1200 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 12.32 INCHES...AND THE TOTAL FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 09/0000 UTC WAS 6.11 INCHES. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N57W...ACROSS ANGUILLA IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CURVING TO 12N70W AT THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3... FOR 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 65W AT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W 28N40W 25N50W 24N54W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N54W TO 26N63W AND TO A TRIPLE POINT THAT IS NEAR 28N67W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 26N71W AND 28N77W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N70W TO THE TRIPLE POINT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N28W 27N40W 25N50W 26N60W 30N66W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 27N FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHWARD BETWEEN 75W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N27W...TO 20N40W 18N50W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 11N67W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA... THROUGH 14N60W 21N44W 26N30W BEYOND 32N22W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREA OF CLOUDINESS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. ONE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET IS RELATED TO THE 32N31W 26N63W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET IS RELATED TO THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N70W. THE THIRD AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET IS RELATED TO THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY WILL THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN 24 HOURS. A FOURTH AREA INVOLVES 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT