000 AXNT20 KNHC 062347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2335 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W AND CONTINUES TO 3N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES WESTWARD ALONG 2N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND MONSOON TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF ALABAMA FROM 29N87W TO 27N88W. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING A FEW LOW-TOP SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT AT THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM APALACHEE BAY TO PENSACOLA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NRN GULF LATE WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECT SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING. THE LARGE SCALE SURFACE WIND PATTERN FROM MARINE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS WIDE TROUGHINESS AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE AREA...ANALYZED ALONG THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE WRN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED ON THE FAR ERN BASIN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OVER THIS GROUP OF ISLANDS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE WRN ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF OUR AREA. THE FIRST WRN-MOST LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N73W. A SECOND LOW IS NEAR 31N65W AND A THIRD ONE NEAR 32N53W. THESE SET OF LOWS ARE CONNECTED BY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...STARTING WITH THE LEADING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO THE FARTHEST EAST LOW ALONG 32N53W TO 28N58W TO 31N65W TO 32N70W TO THE WRN-MOST LOW NEAR 31N73W...THEN WESTWARD TO THE NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. WHILE WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50-80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOCUSED AROUND THE WRN-MOST LOW. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM OF LOW AND FRONTS WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE SAME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N37W TO 23N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT COVERING N OF 22N W OF 30W...WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 7N45W...AND A SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA