000 AXNT20 KNHC 060504 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES TO 3N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 3N20W TO 4N40N TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 11W-12W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 35W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N74W PRODUCING 5-10 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOWEVER OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND OVER NE MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N87W 15N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME ZONAL. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE E GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND N VENEZUELA N OF 5N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W TO N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF 71W TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO RIDGING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N55W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N40W TO 27N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N25W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE N END OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 35W-52W. EXPECT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA