000 AXNT20 KNHC 050528 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N20W TO 2N30N TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 11W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 29N77W PRODUCING 5-10 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF SINCE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE THE E GULF HAS WEAKENED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N88W 17N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER E TEXAS AND N MEXICO. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 72W-76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR AND SW HONDURAS. THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N61W TO 18N63W TO 16N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER S... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 80W TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO RIDGING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 29N77W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N44W TO 27N50W TO 27N60W DISSIPATING TO 25N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S FROM 23N57W TO 20N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N24W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-70W SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA