000 AXNT20 KNHC 030001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N10W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 3N31W 2N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 120/150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA W OF 9W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS GIVING THE GULF WNW FLOW ALOFT. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A 1012 MB LOW THAT AT 02/2100 UTC IS INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA W OF NEW ORLEANS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N91W TO 27N93W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N86W TO THE COAST NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF TO 87W. THE SE FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N OF AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES INLAND TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT SE ACROSS E GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING OVER W GULF LATE SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN JUST N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N77W AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN N ACROSS THE ENTIRE S CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AND S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-72W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH A SLIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 14N E OF 70W ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH E TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY THU THEN DIMINISH FRI AND SAT AS SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WEAKENS. LOW LEVEL WEAKNESS OR TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FRI ACROSS NE CARIBBEAN AND BUILD SW INTO S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS NEAR 32N74W AND 32N55W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER LOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT DRAPES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N41W TO 28N50W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 27N61W AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N45W TO 25N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N33W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA LATE THU AND THEN CONTINUE SE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC THU NIGHT AND FRI MOVING INTO THE E ATLC SAT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER W ATLC FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW