000 AXNT20 KNHC 021045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO TO 03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N18W TO 01N25W TO 02N37W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 01W-08W...AND FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 11W-19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING...HOWEVER A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-NE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH...ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 30N90W TO 24N91W...TO THE NORTH AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL AID IN GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. CURRENTLY THIS ACTIVITY IS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 84W-90W...AND STRETCHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N BETWEEN 80W-86W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN. MOSTLY SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED E OF A LINE FROM 30N90W TO 23N84W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGHING AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA... SOUTHWEST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT. ELSEWHERE S OF 16N E OF 80W...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOTED STREAMING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT REGION ALONG 10N IN THE VICINITY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOWEVER PRESENT OVER TWO NOTABLE AREAS OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST AREA IS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PREVALENT OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W-85W...INCLUDING WESTERN HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE OTHER AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA IS VERY WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADE FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 54W-70W... INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE... MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF 25N75W. THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NOW INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 63W-73W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. AT THE SURFACE AND PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THIS ACTIVE WEATHER...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 31N/32N TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR SAVANNAH. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N42W TO 26N48W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N45W TO 29N53W TO AND BEGINS DISSIPATING WESTWARD TO 28N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE SE OF THE FRONT ANALYZED FROM 31N44W TO 23N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N30W THAT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN