000 AXNT20 KNHC 011045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N18W TO 01N28W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 12W-17W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 19W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST TO 14N77W IN THE SW NORTH ATLC AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST EAST OF THE GULF REGION...A SURFACE TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM 26N83W TO 21N87W... CONTINUES TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTED THE PAST FEW DAYS THAT THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N W OF 87W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA TO 29N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N97W. GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 82W-89W. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MUCH OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOWEVER PRESENT AND ADVECTING OVER TWO AREAS OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST AREA IS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N83W TO 21N87W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. MUCH OF THE CONVERGENCE IS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AS WELL AS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-82W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE OTHER AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 59W-67W...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND OVERCAST CLOUDINESS W OF 68W. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 68W-81W. TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALONG 53W AND SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 32N53W TO 30N60W TO 30N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED N-NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N33W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING AND IS ANALYZED FROM 29N50W TO 23N52W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 45W-54W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN