000
AXNT20 KNHC 262348
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2335 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA 
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 
3N32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. ISOLATED WEAK TO 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 14W-30W. SIMILAR 
ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 300 NM OFF THE COAST OF COTE D'IVOIRE.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO COVER THE 
ENTIRE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING. THESE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS 
FILTER DOWN TO SURFACE SUPPORTING A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF 
THE WESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N83W WITH 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WHILE 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE HIGH CENTER...SSE 
WINDS TO PURELY RETURN FLOW IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KT NEAR THE 
TEXAS COAST. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER 
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOW FOCUSED OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN WATERS...AS A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND 
ASSOCIATED TROUGH GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 74W-84W. THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 
11N77W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 
NEAR 17N82W. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KTS...FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD 
TO SEA LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED WATER SPOUTS ARE LIKELY 
WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE REGION. SEAS UP TO 10 FEET ARE FORECAST TO 
EVOLVE TONIGHT FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 64W-80W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE 
CONVECTION REGION ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER 
MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUOUS CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION AND 
EXPANDING NNW ACROSS CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

TURNING THE ATTENTION TO HISPANIOLA. THE WEATHER ACTIVITY HAS 
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS 
CONTINUE TO BE DANGEROUS DUE TO FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES OVER 
SATURATED TERRAIN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE 
NORTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AS A 
RESULT..AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA 
...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL 
WATERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT N-EASTWARD OVER THE FAR 
N-WRN ATLC. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A NEARLY 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N59W 
TO 22N64W WHERE BECOMES DISSIPATING TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE W OF 
THE FRONT INFLUENCED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N65W. 
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN ATLC 
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N36W TO 15N40W. 
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 15N-23N 
BETWEEN 25W-36W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS A STRONGER POLAR 
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION EXTENDING FROM 31N16W ALONG 29N23W TO 
30N34W WITH ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA