000 AXNT20 KNHC 241752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 04N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 20W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N83W TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 20N92W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGHING WITH NW FLOW LOCATED WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT FILTERS TO THE SURFACE AS A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W WITH CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT INFLUENCE A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH LIGHT E-SE WINDS BEGINNING TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E-SE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SPREADING EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BY EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N68W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE CONCENTRATED TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS NE HISPANIOLA ACROSS JAMAICA TO 18N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER HISPANIOLA THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND PROVIDE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE ISLAND AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 19N72W TO 16N75W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING BETWEEN 71W-79W...WITH THE MOST INTENSE TSTM ACTIVITY S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT UNDER CLEAR AND MOSTLY FAIR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO CANADA EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THIS FLOW REMAINS VERY DRY ALOFT. WHILE MOST OF THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TWO BOUNDARIES REMAIN AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 32N65W...NEAR BERMUDA... TO 25N67W TO NE HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 57W-68W. THE SECOND BOUNDARY WEST OF THE FRONT IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N75W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSING OF THIS TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FARTHER EAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N29W. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N44W IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 34N46W TO 30N47W TO 26N45W TO 22N47W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 39W-46W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN