000 AXNT20 KNHC 231742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 05N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N15W TO 03N21W TO 04N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 23W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS DIPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG 30N85W TO 21N93W OVER THE SW GULF. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE HAS SUPPORTED A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS NOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE LAST COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION OF FLORIDA WESTWARD ALONG 26N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. WHILE THE PREVIOUS FRONTS PROVIDED FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION... THIS PARTICULAR FRONT REMAINS DRY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT OBSERVED IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT...STRONGEST E OF 90W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N69W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MODERATELY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS OCCURRING SE OF A LINE FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE MORE ACTIVE EASTERNMOST FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N75W TO 15N78W TO WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 09N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W-76W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT FROM 11N-18N. S OF 11N...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN 76W-83W. WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF THIS FRONT...E-SE TRADES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL EAST OF THE FRONT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT. SKIES E OF 73W REMAIN CLEAR AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD IF AT ALL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGHING EXTENDING INFLUENCE TO 65W CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERNMOST FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W AND EXTENDS S-SW ALONG 26N70W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THEN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE S OF 22N BETWEEN 70W-75W. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N80W. WHILE THIS FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION-FREE...AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 23/1432 UTC DEPICTED STRONG W-NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 60W WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 55W. THIS RIDGE IS MOSTLY A PART OF THE LARGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N27W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 35N46W THAT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 32N42W TO 25N45W TO 19N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN