000 AXNT20 KNHC 230533 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N26W 2N36W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 27W-37W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR E OF 26W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS AT 23/0300 UTC FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA W ACROSS SE LOUISIANA OVER NEW ORLEANS TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE A DRY STABLE AIR ALSO DOMINATE THE GULF LEAVING THIS TO BE A VERY DRY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N92W LEAVING THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT AND MON. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL SE OF GULF MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH INCREASING SE FLOW RETURNING TO THE NW GULF TUE AND SPREADING E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE WED AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA TO 13N81W THEN W INTO NICARAGUA NEAR EL BLUFF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 17N INCLUDING JAMAICA AND E CUBA. A POST FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA TO 18N87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA ARE BEING DRAWN N INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY THE UPPER RIDGE TO WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 72W-79W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN REACHING FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN MON EVENING AND FROM E HISPANIOLA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE EXTREME NW WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU. EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING E ENTERING THE W ATLC AT 23/0300 UTC NEAR 32N71W EXTENDING ALONG 26N74W ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A POST FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N75W ALONG 27N77W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 27N76W TO BEYOND 32N72W. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST N OF THE REGION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 28N80W TO BEYOND 32N77W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND 32N63W FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ABOUT 550 NM NE OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 10N BETWEEN 35W-55W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N40W TO 24N46W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON EVENING AND FROM 32N64W TO HISPANIOLA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH OVER AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO LATE WED INTO THU AS IT THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW