000 AXNT20 KNHC 220542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W... TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N18W TO 3N30W 1N40W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 15W AND 22W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 41W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W... AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STARTS WITH A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N86W... JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1000 MB LOW CENTER TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W AND 30N80W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1000 MB LOW CENTER TO 25N86W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR 20N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM THE 1000 MB LOW CENTER TO 26N90W AND 25N94W. A SEPARATE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N90W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TO A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO THE WEST OF 74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND/OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT WILL BE RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE 20 TO 30 WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FEET... RELATIVE TO THE COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 8 FEET WITH THE COLD FRONT. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N52W TO 18N60W AND 19N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 22/0000 UTC WAS 0.95 INCHES. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA AND WESTERN EL SALVADOR...TO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS AND EASTERN EL SALVADOR...INTO EASTERN HONDURAS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN AN AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH... PART OF THE OVERALL DEEP LAYER GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W...RELATED TO A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N49W 28N54W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 31N44W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N44W TO 27N47W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N41W 24N46W 20N52W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N52W TO 18N60W AND 19N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 22/0000 UTC WAS 0.95 INCHES. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ARE NEAR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N49W 28N54W SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES/SHEAR AXIS. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N59W...TO BERMUDA...32N72W AND 33N78W. BROAD AND DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 30W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N26W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER THROUGH 32N29W TO 28N32W 22N38W AND 13N45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT