000 AXNT20 KNHC 161745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N18W 5N21W 3N26W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1S27W AND 3S33W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 20W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 45W AND 54W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT EASTERN TEXAS COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT...PASSING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...INTO THE FAR WEST OF TEXAS...INTO MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO 30N97W AND TO THE TEXAS/ MEXICO BORDER THAT IS NEAR 27N99W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 25N TO 29N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM 27.5N TO 29.5N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 90W FROM GUATEMALA TO 27N. SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4... FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS...AND THE AREAS OF 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF 95W TODAY...AND TO THE EAST OF 85W FOR 24 HOURS AFTER 17/1200 UTC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES ON TOP OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COLD FRONT THAT CONSISTS OF CURVES THROUGH 32N46W TO 26N46W AND 20N50W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N50W TO 16N60W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 16N60W TO 14N70W AND 13N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 16N60W...ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO 14N70W 13N81W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.68 INCHES. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS...AND THE SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET...IN THE AREAS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N...AND TO THE NORTH OF 11N/12N TO THE EAST OF 82W...DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 32N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 28N53W...23N55W 23N69W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CURVES THROUGH 32N46W TO 26N46W AND 20N50W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N50W TO 16N60W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 16N60W TO 14N70W AND 13N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 24N46W TO 20N50W 17N56W BEYOND 16N61W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS...AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 13 FEET...RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE 32N46W 16N60W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N20W. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 39N25W...THROUGH 32N32W 25N35W AND 15N41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT