000 AXNT20 KNHC 151759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 3N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N16W TO 2N30W AND 1N39W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 7N12W 5N28W 6N44W 11N50W 10N60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL U.S.A....REACHING THE FAR WEST OF TEXAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...TO CENTRAL TEXAS...INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 28N102W. THIS IS THE FRONT THAT HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY...AND STALL THERE MONDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN 87W/88W RIDGE. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA ALSO. SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N70W...TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA NEAR 31N81W...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND THE AREAS OF SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET OR HIGHER DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IN THE DIFFERENT AREAS TO THE WEST OF 90W...AND TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 25N56W...TO 19N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N77W...ABOUT 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 20N57W AND 18N60W. THE FRONT STARTS DISSIPATING FROM 18N60W TO 16N65W. A SHEAR AXIS STARTS NEAR 16N65W AND IT CONTINUES UNTIL 13N71W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 18N60W 16N65W 14N69W 13N75W...AND FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 73W AND 85W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/1200 UTC FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO WAS 0.37 INCHES...AND IT WAS 0.17 INCHES FOR SAINT THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET...FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE MONA PASSAGE... AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 25N56W...TO 19N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N77W...ABOUT 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N70W...TO 28N50W 23N53W 20N57W AND 18N60W. THE FRONT STARTS DISSIPATING FROM 18N60W TO 16N65W. A SHEAR AXIS STARTS NEAR 16N65W AND IT CONTINUES UNTIL 13N71W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 26N49W AND 21N53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N53W 19N57W 18N61W. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT AND HIGHER WINDS...AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 11 FEET...RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE 32N48W 18N60W COLD FRONT. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N29W. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 17W AND 24W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 39N26W...THROUGH 32N33W TO 22N41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT